From last Monday when the price of Bitcoin was sitting around $9783 at its highest point we have seen a decrease of 9.57% measured to its lowest point made on Saturday at $8847. Since then we have seen a recovery of 3.93% coming to $9221.7 with the price now being traded slightly lower.
Looking at the hourly chart, you can see that the projection is going in accordance as I have outlined the price pathway in the previous post to be a move to the downside as we have seen a test of the ascending triangle’s support level for resistance after a breakout below it. This was appeared to be an ABC correction to the upside which is why now I would be expecting to see another five-wave impulse to the downside which could either be a C wave if this structure is corrective or the 3rd wave if this structure from the 1st of Jun is impulsive.
The price made an interaction with the ascending triangle’s resistance level on the 1st of Jun coming to $10402 at its highest spike after which a downward impulse has been seen below the starting point of the prior upside move which indicated the end of the increase. If this move marked the completion of the higher degree C wave out of the ABC correction that developed since the 16th of March then we are likely seeing the development of a sustainable downtrend out of which the now expected five-wave move would be the 3rd sub-wave of the 1st wave from the higher degree. But in either way from the depth and the momentum from the decline, we are to evaluate this possibility.
From Saturday’s low at $0.169 the price of Ripple has recovered by 6.26% as it came up to $0.17958 at its highest point but is currently being traded slightly lower as it started finding resistance below the 1.618 Fibonacci level.
On the hourly chart, you can see that like in the case of Bitcoin further downside movement would be expected from here as we are most likely seeing the development of the higher degree three-wave correction from the 1st of Jun. If this is true then the currently seen descending structure from the 17th is a five-wave impulse and is going to continue forming for another lower low compared to the Saturday’s one.
After the completion of this descending move, we could be seeing a recovery of the same degree but a more longer-term downtrend could also look likely if the corrective WXY count gets prolonged by two more waves X and Z.
From last Saturday when the price of Link was being traded at around $4.3 we have seen an increase of 8.14% measured to its highest point of the week so far which was made today at $4.6594 slightly below which after a minor retracement the price is currently being traded.
Looking at the hourly chart, we can see that from last Saturday the price action made an ascending triangle and is now coming close to its apex which is why shortly a breakout would be expected.
As we have seen an impulsive decrease from the 25th of June and that after recovery to the upside was made since the 23rd when the price reached $4.9 we could be seeing the development of another corrective structure to the upside. This indicates that a breakout to the downside should be expected as the main trend is a bearish one.
The wave structure implies that we have seen a five-wave impulse after which a five-wave increase but as a lower low was made on the 27th the possibility of the continuous increase was invalidated.
This is why now even though we are seeing an ascending triangle in cannot be interpreted as a leading diagonal and is to the contrary more likely an ending one out of the ABC correction to the upside, being its C wave.
Zooming out on to the 4-hour chart we can see that according to the count we have seen the completion of the higher degree five-wave impulse on the 1st of Jun which makes this higher high made on the 23rd the corrective B wave.
If this is true we are seeing a typical running flat correction in which case the C wave would usually retrace less then 100% then the B wave but in this case, I believe that the C wave would end lower then the ending point of the A wave as the market gets over-exaggerated.
In either way, from here a breakout to the downside is expected to at least $4 area but depending on the market and the seller’s pressure we might see further lows for the price of Chainlink in the upcoming period.
As the prices of these three major coins are showing sings of bearish correlation with the chart implying further downside movement it could be an early indication that the market is headed for another bear cycle in the upcoming period.
While this expected downside movement could be considered corrective it will most likely prove to be a more sustainable downtrend as the bullish period was corrective in nature, especially considering the prior declines – both in amount and in sharpness. There is still more time for these scenarios to be validated which is why we are to closely monitor the significant levels that are serving as in/validation point.
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