Interview with Nikola Lazic, an analyst who predicted the $3000 low for Bitcoin
Nikola we know that you started learning about financial markets back in 2015 and now you are a full-time trader. But let’s start with the most simple question — Tell us about yourself?
During my final years at university, I’ve stumbled across a trading platform. I knew that you can invest in the stock market and that there are people called traders but I didn’t know that there are a variety of trading instruments and that it is so accessible. You can open an account, clicks buy or sell and if you are correct you get rewarded.
As someone who aims at achieving the maximum freedom capacity in my life, I realized that if I learned this skill of trading I would be truly financially independent, meaning I wouldn’t relly on getting a job, how the industry in which I operate in is performing or how my domestic currency in which I would be paid is valued.
This was truly valuable to me and was the thing that kept me going all these years through thick and thin.
Give us a quick introduction to your background? What road bumps did you face along the way to becoming a full-time trader and how did you handle them?
I hold a bachelor’s degree in Sociology, trade and invest in cryptocurrencies, offer my analytical services and work as an analyst for Quantum Hedge Fund.
Starting out, I needed to learn how to read charts. Like many who are just starting out the majority of my time was devoted to analysis. If I get it right I would make a profit, at least that’s what I thought back then.
Following the information online can be so confusing. I flocked to trading strategies, multiple indications crossovers, candlestick patterns, etc. That produced some success but it wasn’t consistent. The good thing is that I saw the glimmer of hope which pushed me forward.
That’s when I decided to take a more systematic approach and downloaded a syllabus from IFTA (International Federation of Technical Analysts) and started reading a book by book from the list.
Secondly, I realized that money/risk management is equally important as performing a good analysis. With good money management strategy, you can be less than half of the time right with your analysis and still be in profit.
And lastly, it was trading psychology. At the end of the day, it is you who is pressing that buy and sell button and if you are governed by emotions and impulses you won’t stick to your trading plan.
These three areas are what I consider the pillars of trading, and handing them will surely bring you to that 10% of profitable traders.
Who or what motivated you to join the cryptocurrency space?
I started trading the Forex market. Extensive research on the fundamentals of currencies led me to the realization of how fraudulent the banking system truly is and ultimately to its solution — Bitcoin and blockchain technology.
Being a Sociologist by vocation with a primary objective to better the world and a trader by profession with an interest to make money I was fully engaged into the space and I departed from the Forex market.
What special skills or talents are needed to become a trader?
I mentioned the three pillars of trading. Those are the skills I believe are truly beneficial to master. But you as a person need to be ready for trading. That means that you need to have an entrepreneurial mindset, be a risk-taker and have a cold head.
Trading is what’s considered a high-performance activity. There are people who can flourish in these environments, and there are people that just freeze up. It all depends on your personality traits and how you handle stress.
We heard that your preferred analytical approach is the Elliott Wave Theory, combined with Fibonacci tools. Is that true? What is your favored analytical approach?
Yes, that’s true. As a Sociologist, I understand human behavior and Elliott Wave Theory is just that — reading people’s moods and behaviors from the price action. Wave structures outlined in the Theory can point out the direction of the market move better than any analytical tool I’ve come across. This is because people tend to act similarly in similar circumstances and although no one can predict the future we can predict human behavior, especially as we know the goal behind — to make money or to avoid a loss.
And while EW is serving me to predict the direction, Fibonacci tools have enabled me to pinpoint their exact levels. See, price is relative and always in discovery when we are talking about financial markets. If I were to ask you if $1000 is cheap or expensive you can’t reply because you don’t know what for or compared to what. It would be cheap to buy a car but would be expensive to buy breakfast. That works for a single item as well. If something priced at $1000 suddenly gets discounted for 20% and especially if the competitors haven’t lowered the price, it would be viewed as cheap. But if the price starts declining altogether it can serve as a signal that there isn’t much demand for it and thus the 20% discount wouldn’t be so tempting.
Fibonacci tools measure that relativity in a way that can help gain insights into what people consider cheap or expensive and the golden ratio plays a part in that relativity.
Your analysis has been praised all across the cryptocurrency space. What are some of your most notable analytical predictions?
There’s a saying: “everyone is a genius in a bull market”, so the majority of my reputation for accurately predicting the market moves and pinpointing their levels was gained since the start of the bear market which I called out in January 2018.
But the most notable one was the $3000 low for Bitcoin which I’ve started calling since February 2018. I’ve recently published a video overview on how I did it, following the charts which were published at the time, and also included the links to the original posts for verification purposes. You can check out the video here.
You are also the founder of cryptocurrency-analysis.com website saying that it is your modest contribution, as you want to bring clarity and ease in this highly emotional and volatile market overwhelmed with information with comprehensive and unbiased analytical content. You also launched free newsletters. How did you decide to make it free and what is a further vision for the website?
I am regularly hired by people from the industry to write about the market and provide my insights to their reader so leveraging the work I do for my clients I am able to provide a free newsletter. Joining it you will become a part of the list of people who are regularly getting updated on the latest price expectations and significant events.
Like I said my goal with the website is to provide unbiased analytical content. The market is still immature and is lacking for accurate information. News and media outlets are incentivized on traffic so they overpublish, YouTubers on views so they entertain, brokers and exchanges on trading frequency so they hype, and every project’s own outlet will always serve it’s own best interest.
Every time you make a purchase you are voting for the product to stay on the market. Those who first bought Bitcoin did it for the idea of achieving a decentralized financial future and were the first once to cast the vote financially that offered initial support. This eventually led to Bitcoin rising in price which then attracted new investors which then led to Bitcoin hitting the mainstream.
As a new asset class developed a new market did as well and many who own cryptocurrencies are investors for the first time in their lives. On the other hand, this emerging market that was at time surrounded by hype attracted businesses and start-ups to consider “going blockchain”.
We have seen a lot of Ponzi schemes like Bitconnect, exit scams, market manipulation, ICO busts, or straightforward money grab projects in the past years because of this. That’s why with my website, I want to help people in this voting process so that bad actors are out of the market and the good ones that truly have the potential to transform our everyday lives prevail, and this is where the real investor value is.
What has been your best and what the worst investment?
My best investment is in my education which is ongoing. I am always learning and expanding my knowledge and skills which pays high dividends and compounding interest. Time is our most valuable asset and we as traders are trying to free it up more so that we can enjoy life in our authenticity, so mismanaging that objective by procrastinating or waste my time on escapism I view is my worst investment.
What do you think about the current crypto market and what can we expect in the near future?
We have seen some major advancements in technology, regulation, and adoption especially from the traditional establishment. The prices have recovered significantly since the start of the year and are now undergoing a downturn. From this recent decline, we are going to see if we are out of the bear market or have we see only its two thirds with another collapse ahead.
I would like to use the opportunity to invite people on my mailing list where this will be closely followed and discussed.
Nikola thank you for your answers! Let’s finish with this one — If you were your own mentor, what is the most important advice you would give yourself?
Do not trade for a living, trade to live.